New Delhi, April 30, 2026: Exit polls released following the conclusion of voting in the 2026 assembly elections have painted a complex picture across several states. Pollsters offered differing assessments of the likely outcomes in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry.
In Tamil Nadu, most exit polls indicated that the ruling DMK-led alliance under Chief Minister M K Stalin is positioned to retain power. Projections from agencies such as People’s Pulse, P-MARQ and Matrize placed the DMK alliance between 120 and 145 seats in the 234-member assembly.
However, one major outlier, Axis My India, projected a strong performance for actor-turned-politician Vijay’s newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). The survey estimated TVK could secure between 98 and 120 seats in its debut outing, potentially disrupting the traditional DMK-AIADMK duopoly. Vijay received slightly higher personal approval ratings than Stalin in that particular poll.
Other surveys gave TVK a more modest projection, ranging from a few seats to around 30-40 seats, suggesting the party could still influence outcomes by splitting votes in several constituencies.
In West Bengal, exit polls presented a divided picture. Several agencies projected a close fight between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP. Some surveys, including those from Chanakya Strategies and Matrize, gave the BJP an edge with projections of 146-161 seats against TMC’s 125-140 in the 294-member assembly.
Others pointed to the possibility of a hung house, which could end Mamata Banerjee’s long tenure if confirmed on counting day. Axis My India opted not to release complete data for West Bengal, noting that voters remained largely non-committal during surveys.
For Assam, nearly all exit polls predicted a clear victory for the BJP-led alliance under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Projections placed the BJP between 88 and 100 seats in the 126-member assembly, with the Congress expected to finish a distant second around 24-36 seats.
In Kerala, several polls suggested a return of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) after a decade, ending the Left Democratic Front’s rule.
These exit polls have generated intense debate among political parties. While some leaders have dismissed them outright, others have cautiously welcomed the trends. Final results are scheduled to be declared in the coming days, and political observers caution that exit polls often carry margins of error, particularly in multi-phase elections with high voter turnout.
The elections witnessed significant public engagement, with reports of robust participation in several states. Issues ranging from local development and governance to national security and economic concerns dominated campaign narratives.
Political analysts note that the emergence of new players like TVK in Tamil Nadu reflects shifting voter preferences in southern politics. Similarly, the intense bipolar contest in West Bengal highlights the deepening polarisation between the TMC and BJP.
As counting approaches, all eyes remain on how these projections translate into actual seat tallies. Parties have already begun preparing their post-poll strategies, with alliances and support negotiations likely to gain momentum if the results throw up fragmented mandates in any state.
The Election Commission maintained tight security arrangements during the polling phases, and authorities have urged all stakeholders to await the official verdict.
