Bitcoin 24 Month Performance Analysis: An economist has pointed out an interesting pattern in Bitcoin’s recent performance that could mean good news for its future price.
Half of the past 24 months ended with positive returns for Bitcoin. Economist Timothy Peterson shared this finding in an X post on Saturday. He said this 50% positive rate suggests an 88% chance that Bitcoin will trade higher 10 months from now, pointing toward December 2026.
Peterson uses this simple measure — counting positive months over any 24-month window — to spot possible turning points in Bitcoin’s trend. Data from CoinGlass shows that in 2025, Bitcoin gained in January, April, May, June, July, and September. The other six months closed lower.
Right now, Bitcoin trades at $68,173, down nearly 25% from the start of the year, according to CoinMarketCap. Market mood remains weak, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hitting an “Extreme Fear” level of 9 on Sunday. This shows investors are very cautious.
Still, some signs offer hope. Santiment noted on Friday that fewer bold price predictions on social media is a healthy shift, moving sentiment back toward neutral.
On prediction platform Polymarket, traders give December 2026 only a 17% chance of becoming Bitcoin’s top month this year, slightly behind November at 18%. History supports November’s strength: since 2013, it has delivered an average return of 41.13% for Bitcoin, per CoinGlass data.
Analysts remain split on what comes next. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, said on Friday he expects Bitcoin to turn green next week. He pointed to the chance of ending the current month with a big upward move after five straight red months.
Others are less hopeful. Veteran trader Peter Brand recently told Magazine that Bitcoin’s true bottom may not arrive until October 2026.
Peterson’s optimistic view stands out amid the mixed opinions and low sentiment. His analysis focuses on the steady pattern of monthly gains over the past two years as a key clue for Bitcoin’s path forward.
(Source: TradingView)
